Showing posts with label spreadsheet. Show all posts
Showing posts with label spreadsheet. Show all posts

Thursday, April 10, 2008

From Slashdot.org: HighWizard posts "Oil Deposit Could Increase US Reserves 10x"

Occasionally you'll get a gem of a piece posted on Slashdot.org that has academic/trading/investment merit. This article is about the release of a report on the Bakkan Formation. There's lots of good stuff in the following Slashdot story thread.


HighWizard notes the upcoming release, on Thursday, of a report by the US Geological Survey on the Bakken Formation. This is an oil field covering 200,000 square miles and underlying parts of North and South Dakota, Montana, and Saskatchewan. A geologist who began surveying the field, before dying in 2000, believed it may hold as much as 1 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Later estimates have ranged to the hundreds of billions of barrels. Such a reserve would go a long way toward securing US energy independence.

Read more at Slashdot.org: http://hardware.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=08/04/08/2111201&from=rss

If this is true, which companies are at the Bakkan formation?

Reader Itchyeyes (908311) contributes:

The people that have interests in the Bakken in North Dakota are not the majors. They are companies like EOG, Marathon, Kodiak, and Questar. These companies do not have refineries. They sell at the market price, they have no say in what their product goes for. They do not have enough reserves to make any impact on market prices even if they wanted to.



Also, he gives reasons as to why oil extraction from Bakkan formation is becoming a viable economic alternative due to high oil prices.

Of note is the following rant by Reader iq_in_binary (305246):

You, sir, are a complete fucking moron.

The big oil companies haven't been making their profit by virtue of artificially controlling the supply, they've been doing it by selling more than they've ever sold before. The profits reaped last year and the year previous wasn't because of raising their profit margins (I.E. raising prices to increase their profit margin), they've been doing it by selling more petrol than in any years previous.

Big Oil has has the same business infrastructure, organizational structure, and sales methods as they've had for 50 fucking years. They held a razor thin profit margin on gasoline for going on 25 years now. For every dollar on gas, you spend maybe 3 pennies giving them profit. So quit bitching about oil companies gouging the public, because they aren't. You want to know the real culprit for gas prices these days? Our own fucking government, they make about a dollar per gallon on taxes.

Where does that money go? Who knows any more. Just quit bitching about a company actually doing good business, because for the most part the petrol companies are. They have to deal with literally thousands of different mixtures of gasoline being shipped among this country, the different ways to refine them, and finally the shipping, and they're only pulling 3% profit. Fuck you for thinking that's out of line. Learn your economics, and then learn how the real world works. The price of gas being as high as it is is MORE the gov's fault for spending so much money on pork that it has to rape us on gas to compensate. Bitch at your governments for taxing gas so much, then bitch at them for making good companies spend twice as much as they have to for making a good product, THEN bitch at the gas companies for not making things cheap enough when they're only pulling a 3% margin.

This is a capitalist economy, damnit, it's what is responsible for this country's well-being. Think about the business first, then bitch.
To which, I say, AMEN to that!

Friday, April 04, 2008

Real Options Spreadsheet in action: Foresight.co.uk "Exploiting the Electromagnetic Spectrum"

Foresight.co.uk is the British government's efforts at tracking, spotting and managing technological and scientific development. To value the cost and benefits of 'Exploiting the Electromagnetic Spectrum' they used Real Option Theory and tasked University of Manchester to develop a spreadsheet to calculate option prices of completing certain project milestones.

Link to the main page: "Foresight Real Options Model"

Link to the PDF Manual.

Link to the Option Calculator (Excel Spreadsheet).

Crack open the PDF manual and they'll explain clearly what all the cells do and how they relate to each other. Very insightful if you are thinking of developing a Real Option spreadsheet of your own.

Thursday, March 27, 2008

DIY Portfolio Analysis

Had a poke around the net and found this company, Structured Data LLC, based out of NY. They have a website riskamp.com 

They offer a free excel spreadsheet which allows you to model a portfolio. You do have to download their monte carlo excel add-in to use the spreadsheet.

The idea behind a Monte Carlo analysis is to model the results of a portfolio (can be actual or theoretical) by subjecting it to n random trials. You can then extrapolate the probability distribution functions, mean returns and figure out if you're committing too much or too little of your money into equity, bonds or money markets.

Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Real Option Valuation Spreadsheet

URL: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/

For all you MBAs, MScs, CFAs, finance undergrads/postgrads, whatever, I bring to you, the sourcebook, the panacea for all your valuation pains - Damodaran Online!

Checks its outs, yo, all your excel spreadsheets preconfigured with the formula so that all you've gotta do now is plug accounting numbers to relevant cells, do a bit of messing about with the numbers and voila! numbers for you to plug into that term report.

Damodaran is the man!

(Apologies for the slang; I don't quite know what came over me.)